Saturday, February 19, 2011

Simulation Outcome & After-Action Report

After Action Report: 2011 ISP Crisis Simulation on an Independent Kurdistan

1. Prefer the smaller team size (3 people)

2. Game changers, intels, leaks added to the process; kept things moving

3. Cheers to the gas masks.

4. Game changers worked well because they weren’t too far-fetched. Announcements helped make sure everyone was on the same page.

5. Actions by actors outside of the group were frustrating because there was no party to negotiate with.

6. Contradictory information in packets (i.e., objective facts, maps, Articles in constitutions, etc.) were unhelpful. Not a reference to intel reports, which—for obvious reasons—would be different.

7. Better if there were an initial shock to start off the scenario, because it was difficult for team Kurdistan to defend its position and negotiate with allies.

8. Blog/email system worked.

9. Next time: maps of troops’ initial position (with gas masks) would be helpful.

10. One common map would also be helpful.

11. Realism: the sticking point preventing a negotiated solution, and the interaction between teams.

12. Natural urge is to act as conflict mediator; reinforcing the goal of the exercise as achieving national objectives (vs. resolving the conflict) would be helpful.

a. Include things like civilian casualties in objectives.

13. Outcome was realistic (i.e. stalemate?)

14. Regional for a to discuss issues and facilitate multilateral negotiations would be helpful

15. Designate positions within teams beforehand? Include personality info in packets.

16. Constraints are helpful, especially on offensive actions and making the sharing of intel reports result in the suspension of additional intelligence on that country.

17. Team Iran did best job of exploiting press leaks to shape international environment in their favor.

18. Have separate blog/email address to keep track of backroom deals. OR in final move announce the secret deals you made that you intend to keep to.

19. Next time make initial announcement about tools available to teams:

a. Press Releases: Your government’s official position; whatever you want to say goes

b. Leaks (anonymous): Must meet control team criteria (i.e., there must be a reason why they are anonymous; the actions pertain only to your team; no disinformation; must be realistic)

c. Intel Reports: If you share with other teams or use them in your leaks/press releases, you no longer have the option of receiving intelligence from that source.

20. WINNER: Team Iran

a. Achieved 3.5 of their objectives (increasing regional hegemony, preventing domestic Kurdish uprisings in Iran, avoiding influx of Kurdish refugees from military conflict); no point deductions.

b. #2 – Team Iraq – achieved stalemate, scheduled referendum to settle Kirkuk question

c. #3 – Team Kurdistan – prevented mil. intervention, esp. in Kirkuk; getting int’l recognition;

d. #4 – USA – prevented war (Turkish invasion); staved off internal Iraqi violence;

e. #5 – Turkey – achieved one objective, but had 2 time penalties; stalemate does not equal preventing Kurdish independence “at all costs;”

Press Release- USA FINAL

The United States will continue to work with Iraq to resolve the Kurdish succession issue. The Pershmerga army has proved to be a sticking point between the Iraqis and the Kurds and the US will continue talks with both sides until an agreement is reached. Turkey has offered its support of a unified country and we appreciate that gesture. The United States will send a high level diplomatic envoy to continue negotiations as well as security support in the region. The US is proud of the fact that war did not emerge in the region and we continue to advocate for peace and stability. We will reallocate its forces along the Iranian border.

Press Release- Kurdistan FINAL

We are optimistic by the process of negotiations, but may reconsider the prospect of rejoining the Iraqi State. At this point, the one obstacle to a diplomatic resolution remains the unprecedented demands of completely integrating the Pershmerga. We have been limited by the assassination of our Prime Minister but hopefully things will conclude shortly. But ultimately we made a stand to assert our independence and will stand by it if unacceptable demand are continued.

Press Release- Turkey FINAL

Turkey welcomes the decision to establish a unified Iraq. Turkey has made a military commitment to the Iraqi government to maintain peace and unity, and help the implementation of the unifying process. We have helped to encourage and maintain US support for the unification, and have persuaded the international community to recognize the unified Iraq.

We have worked with Iran to maintain regional security as well as our domestic energy concerns.

We have worked democratically and peacefully with domestic kurdish groups to maintain national security and human rights.

Turkey looks forward to collaboratively increase working with the Kurdish region to secure our economic and energy interests.

Press Release- Iraq FINAL

Iraq has stipulated that the Kurdish Regional Government can maintain its constitutionally stipulated autonomous region if they gradually integrate the Peshmerga into the Iraqi Armed Forces within the next five years while in the mean time we conduct joint operations in the north. We will have a referendum on the status of Kirkuk within a year with international observers to verify the referendum and migration prior to the referendum. Iraq will allow an international observer mission from the United Nations for the northern region to ensure Kurdish human rights. We thank our allies the United States and Turkey for a guarantee of Iraqi unity and we thank Iran for allowing us to solve this issue internally.

Press Release- Iran FINAL

Due to Turkish noncompliance on previous negotiations, Iran has severed the oil pipeline it previously established with Turkey

Offers right of return to any Iranian Kurds displaced in Turkey or Iraq

Enacts a series of reforms to end discrimination against Kurdish minority and integrate them into the larger Iranian community

Contingent on complete US troop draw-down from the northern border, Iran will remove all but one brigade. Once unification is complete, Iran will remove the final brigade.

Press Release

Because the Greece-sponsored resolution on Kurdistan recognition failed, Iran has decided to remove 1 unit of troops from the Iraqi border as a good faith gesture in hope that the US will follow Iran's lead.

CNN Breaking News

By a narrow margin, the Greece-sponsored resolution on Kurdistan recognition fails. Opponents of the resolution, while recognizing the importance of cultural freedoms, have stressed the importance of the sovereignty question to be resolved diplomatically by relevant regional parties.

Official Iranian Press Release

Talks are ongoing with Iraqi Shia militia leader Muqtada al-Sadr in establishing a separate Shia state in the south of Iraq in the event that Kurdistan remains independent.

International Update: Protests Escalate

1. Tensions rise as the crisis continues to go unresolved, and protests--which have spread from Baghdad to most major Iraqi cities--take a markedly sectarian tone. Protesters in the predominantly Sunni areas call for their elected officials to exploit the vacuum created in the GOI by the withdrawal of Kurds to augment their meager political representation, while several Shia protests have featured chants for the Shia to follow the Kurds example and create a separate Shia state in Iraq’s oil-rich south.

UN Press Release

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has issued a press statement expressing grave concern over the question of refugees and internally displaced persons in Iraq and Turkey. The UNHCR call on all relevant parties to put aside political disputes and formulate a comprehensive plan to ameliorate this dire situation affecting dislocated civilians. The UNHCR urges parties to include a resolution to refugee issues in any forthcoming international agreements.

Press Release European Union Round 6

NATO is concerned about the destabilizing effects of Kurdistani independence upon regional security issues and is engaged in talks with the EU member countries regarding possible nonviolent measures to curtail conflict. Both organizations have publically expressed stern warnings for any who initiate unnecessary open military engagement.

International Press Release- New York Times

According to reports, US military officials are hesitant to redeploy US forces or reassign US forces currently operating in Iraq towards the Kurdistan/Turkey border. Fear it will leave key areas in Iraq vulnerable to insurgent attacks. Given this recent update its difficult to understand how the US will help defend Kurdish forces against a possible Iranian incursion.

Press Release- Iran Round 6

Supports ongoing dialogue between Kurdish and Iraqi factions in finding a peaceful resolution, however Iranian troops remain on high alert until Iraq is once again unified

Praises Kurdistan's recent reconsideration of its independence and willingness to engage in constructive dialogue about its long-term future as a province of Iraq

President Ahmadinejad invites Muqtada al-Sadr to talks over Iraqi Shia - Iran relations

Press Release- USA Round 6

The United States is working with Iraqis and the Kurds to negotiate a resolution. The US is moving troops to the Iranian border in consultation with the Iraqi government as part of broader security measures. The stability of the international system continues to be our main concern and we will continue to engage in these debates. The fifth fleet has also moved into the Persian Gulf and troops in Afganistan have stopped counterinsurgency efforts in Afghanistan and have moved to the eastern border of Iran. The United States has also introduced a resolution in the UN security council condemning Iran for its threats against Israel and Kuwait.

Press Release- Iraq Round 6

Kurdish refusal to integrate the unconstitutional Peshmerga into the Iraqi Armed Forces is an action that undermines all possibility of future talks. The Iraqi government stands strong on our commitment to a referendum for the Kurds, overseen by the international community as well increased international monitoring of migration to the disputed areas. The Government of Iraq welcomes an efficient resolution to this issue. The Government of Iraq welcomes our ally Turkey?s reaffirmation of unified Iraq and looks forward to continued economic relations with Turkey.

Press Release- Kurdistan Round 6

Today we mourn the loss of our revered leader, Prime Minister Barhim Salih. It is through his inspiration and leadership that the Kurdistan has emerged. We take this horrific act of murder extremely seriously, and will do all that we can to bring the perpetrators and their sponsor’s to justice. Our intelligence has initial leads and will follow through with this investigation to its end. We call on the entire Kurdish Diaspora to join in mourning the loss of our beloved Prime Minister.

The circumstances of this murderous act have caused tremendous suffering within our people, and have furthered our resolve to meet his aspirations towards self-determination. We remain committed to negotiations with the Iraqi government, and above all the security and future prosperity of our people.

We also have become deeply worried with the aggressive actions of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Kurdistan is moving its brigade from the Turkish border to the border with Iran.

We welcome progress on a politically negotiated solution with the Government of Iraq and hope for reconciliation in the near future.

Press Release- Turkey Round 6

Turkey emphatically maintains its goal of keeping a unified Iraq and will continue this unwavering support. She encourages the Kurdish people within Iraq to work with the national government to resolve this matter peacefully.

Regional stability is very important to Turkey. Turkey has been working closely with Iraq and Iran to maintain peace in the region, and discourages the belligerent troop movement in Iran, and states that she is willing to work with Iran to alleviate tensions.

Iranian Press Release

President Ahmadinejad prasies the US willingness to engage is discussions over a unified Iraq. US leaders approached the surprised Iranian government pleading for a solution to recent tensions. This elevates Iran's status as an international player in the Iraqi-Kurdish question, and Iran welcomes its new found leadership position.

International Update

1. Greece, a historic supporter of Kurdish separatist movements, has introduced a Resolution (non-binding) to the General Assembly to recognize Kurdistan as a sovereign entity. With tacit support from both the Netherlands and Belgium, UN representatives are lobbying for resolution support. The Great Powers are expected to heavily influence the outcome of the resolution.

International Press Report

Israel affirms its recognition of an independent Kurdistan in defense of oppressed minorities pursuit of legitimate self-determination. The Israeli government condemns Iran's recent provocative actions, including joint military exercises with Syria and the build-up of its forces along the Kurdistan border, and notes with displeasure the Iranian government's failure to quell recent protests in Tehran that are contributing to rising tensions.

As such, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have upgraded its defense condition, and mobilized its strategic bombing force. Israel is prepared to respond with all necessary force to any acts of aggression against the Israeli nation.

Press Leak

BBC reports spontaneous demonstrations in Tehran calling for war with Israel over their support of an independent Kurdish state in Iraq.

CNN Breaking News

Security reports confirm that the Kurdistani Prime Minister, Barhim Salih has been assassinated by a gunshot wound to the head.

International Press Report

Independent reports verify that the sunk tanker left the Kuwaiti Port of Mina Al Abdullah and was flying the Kuwaiti Flag at the time of attack. There have been no verified reports of who was responsible, although security experts have indicated that the attack occurred outside the range of Somali Pirates. Tensions in the Middle East remain at a critical level.