Saturday, February 19, 2011

Simulation Outcome & After-Action Report

After Action Report: 2011 ISP Crisis Simulation on an Independent Kurdistan

1. Prefer the smaller team size (3 people)

2. Game changers, intels, leaks added to the process; kept things moving

3. Cheers to the gas masks.

4. Game changers worked well because they weren’t too far-fetched. Announcements helped make sure everyone was on the same page.

5. Actions by actors outside of the group were frustrating because there was no party to negotiate with.

6. Contradictory information in packets (i.e., objective facts, maps, Articles in constitutions, etc.) were unhelpful. Not a reference to intel reports, which—for obvious reasons—would be different.

7. Better if there were an initial shock to start off the scenario, because it was difficult for team Kurdistan to defend its position and negotiate with allies.

8. Blog/email system worked.

9. Next time: maps of troops’ initial position (with gas masks) would be helpful.

10. One common map would also be helpful.

11. Realism: the sticking point preventing a negotiated solution, and the interaction between teams.

12. Natural urge is to act as conflict mediator; reinforcing the goal of the exercise as achieving national objectives (vs. resolving the conflict) would be helpful.

a. Include things like civilian casualties in objectives.

13. Outcome was realistic (i.e. stalemate?)

14. Regional for a to discuss issues and facilitate multilateral negotiations would be helpful

15. Designate positions within teams beforehand? Include personality info in packets.

16. Constraints are helpful, especially on offensive actions and making the sharing of intel reports result in the suspension of additional intelligence on that country.

17. Team Iran did best job of exploiting press leaks to shape international environment in their favor.

18. Have separate blog/email address to keep track of backroom deals. OR in final move announce the secret deals you made that you intend to keep to.

19. Next time make initial announcement about tools available to teams:

a. Press Releases: Your government’s official position; whatever you want to say goes

b. Leaks (anonymous): Must meet control team criteria (i.e., there must be a reason why they are anonymous; the actions pertain only to your team; no disinformation; must be realistic)

c. Intel Reports: If you share with other teams or use them in your leaks/press releases, you no longer have the option of receiving intelligence from that source.

20. WINNER: Team Iran

a. Achieved 3.5 of their objectives (increasing regional hegemony, preventing domestic Kurdish uprisings in Iran, avoiding influx of Kurdish refugees from military conflict); no point deductions.

b. #2 – Team Iraq – achieved stalemate, scheduled referendum to settle Kirkuk question

c. #3 – Team Kurdistan – prevented mil. intervention, esp. in Kirkuk; getting int’l recognition;

d. #4 – USA – prevented war (Turkish invasion); staved off internal Iraqi violence;

e. #5 – Turkey – achieved one objective, but had 2 time penalties; stalemate does not equal preventing Kurdish independence “at all costs;”

Press Release- USA FINAL

The United States will continue to work with Iraq to resolve the Kurdish succession issue. The Pershmerga army has proved to be a sticking point between the Iraqis and the Kurds and the US will continue talks with both sides until an agreement is reached. Turkey has offered its support of a unified country and we appreciate that gesture. The United States will send a high level diplomatic envoy to continue negotiations as well as security support in the region. The US is proud of the fact that war did not emerge in the region and we continue to advocate for peace and stability. We will reallocate its forces along the Iranian border.

Press Release- Kurdistan FINAL

We are optimistic by the process of negotiations, but may reconsider the prospect of rejoining the Iraqi State. At this point, the one obstacle to a diplomatic resolution remains the unprecedented demands of completely integrating the Pershmerga. We have been limited by the assassination of our Prime Minister but hopefully things will conclude shortly. But ultimately we made a stand to assert our independence and will stand by it if unacceptable demand are continued.

Press Release- Turkey FINAL

Turkey welcomes the decision to establish a unified Iraq. Turkey has made a military commitment to the Iraqi government to maintain peace and unity, and help the implementation of the unifying process. We have helped to encourage and maintain US support for the unification, and have persuaded the international community to recognize the unified Iraq.

We have worked with Iran to maintain regional security as well as our domestic energy concerns.

We have worked democratically and peacefully with domestic kurdish groups to maintain national security and human rights.

Turkey looks forward to collaboratively increase working with the Kurdish region to secure our economic and energy interests.

Press Release- Iraq FINAL

Iraq has stipulated that the Kurdish Regional Government can maintain its constitutionally stipulated autonomous region if they gradually integrate the Peshmerga into the Iraqi Armed Forces within the next five years while in the mean time we conduct joint operations in the north. We will have a referendum on the status of Kirkuk within a year with international observers to verify the referendum and migration prior to the referendum. Iraq will allow an international observer mission from the United Nations for the northern region to ensure Kurdish human rights. We thank our allies the United States and Turkey for a guarantee of Iraqi unity and we thank Iran for allowing us to solve this issue internally.

Press Release- Iran FINAL

Due to Turkish noncompliance on previous negotiations, Iran has severed the oil pipeline it previously established with Turkey

Offers right of return to any Iranian Kurds displaced in Turkey or Iraq

Enacts a series of reforms to end discrimination against Kurdish minority and integrate them into the larger Iranian community

Contingent on complete US troop draw-down from the northern border, Iran will remove all but one brigade. Once unification is complete, Iran will remove the final brigade.

Press Release

Because the Greece-sponsored resolution on Kurdistan recognition failed, Iran has decided to remove 1 unit of troops from the Iraqi border as a good faith gesture in hope that the US will follow Iran's lead.